Saturday, November 18, 2006

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S. African Rand Declines for First Week in Four on Gold, Bonds
By Nasreen Seria
Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- South Africa's rand dropped for a first week in four, snapping its longest winning run in three months, as demand for the country's bonds slipped and the price of gold, its main export earner, fell.
Foreign purchases of bonds slumped 60 percent to 1.8 billion rand ($245 million) in the week ended Nov. 16 compared with the previous week, according to the Bond Exchange of South Africa. Demand for bonds slid on speculation the central bank will increase its interest rate in December.
Against the dollar, the rand declined to 7.27 by late yesterday in Johannesburg, from 7.22 on Nov. 10. The rand has dropped 13 percent this year, the worst performer of the 71 currencies tracked by Bloomberg.
South Africa's Reserve Bank Governor Tito Mboweni said Nov. 14 the bank won't hesitate to raise its key lending rate from a three-year high of 8.5 percent if the inflation target is threatened. Higher interest rates boost the yield advantage of local assets.
``If the inflation target is being threatened by inflationary pressures, then the MPC will have the courage of its conviction to do the correct thing, even as we enter the festive period,'' said Mboweni. ``Once again, our message is that we should all try to tighten our belts.''
The Reserve Bank has lifted interest rates three times since June as the Federal Reserve has kept its key rate at a 5 1/2-year high of 5.25 percent at three straight meetings since August.
The rand also fell as the price of gold and platinum, which together account for a fifth of South African exports, dropped for the first time in six weeks. South Africa is the world's largest gold and platinum producer and the currency often moves in tandem with the precious metals.
Gold fell for a second week and was recently at $622.40 an ounce, while platinum snapped a two-week gain and was at $1,164.0 an ounce.
South African government bonds fell this week. The yield on the 10 percent bond, due February 2008, rose 8 basis points to 8.71 percent. The price of the note, also known as the R194, fell 0.11, or 11 cents, per 100 rand ($13.74) face amount, to 101.52. Bond yields move inversely to the price

1 comment:

Yzerfontein said...

I wonder to what extent the recent rand strength has a bearing on Tito Mboweni & the MPC's decisions. I think a rand strengthening back to R6.5/$ would put a stop to the rate increase cycle.